It was the intention of the Bank of Canada to do a rate hike that would cool the housing market. While also curbing inflation. We are starting to see that these high interests are subduing some sales activity. But the pain for homebuyers is now starting, as well as for homeowners too. 

Interest rates are climbing, and inflation rates are climbing as well. Homebuyers are left to carry heavier financial burdens if they decide to go ahead with their goals of owning a home. Especially affected are first-time home buyers, since they are just entering the market with no equity coming in. 

The Double-Whammy Effect 

The situation is discouraging for many homebuyers. The interest rates are increasing, but the prices for homes are still high. This means down payments and mortgage payments are going to be higher. 

Many expected the higher interest rate to affect home sales. But even though there is a slight shift to more balanced conditions, sales are still at record levels and prices are above the 2022 expectations. 

Vulnerabilities for Homeowners

Some strategists expect to see a 0.75% increase in the policy rate by the Bank of Canada. But they are also not discounting the fact that there could still be a full-point hike. The most vulnerable Canadians are those with a Home Equity line of credit or HELOC. 

Many HELOCs have variable-rate interest rates, and so when interest rates rise, buyers may find themselves with higher payments out of nowhere. In these cases, the principal is sensitive to the rate hike. This is because a bank’s interest rate on HELOcs is tied to their prime lending rate. 

Even if the lender offers a specified period where they offer a fixed-term home equity loan. This is true regardless of the increase or decrease on the principal. 

New Stipulations 

In late 2023, it is expected that the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) will need borrowers to pay principal and interest when they have a combined loan that is above 65% of the value of the home. 

Dividend Machine 

The real estate sector has been underperforming on the stock market with a 22.67% year to date. It is actually the 3rd worst performing sector, coming in after healthcare and technology. However, we are still seeing a popularity in income investigation, especially for choice properties. 

The 5.27% dividend is at $14.09 per share, and there has been the return to profitability of the $4.62 billion REIT in Q! Of 2022, thanks to positive leasing momentum and rent collections. The net income for the quarter was almost at $387 million, compared to a net loss of $62.2 million in Q1 of 2021. 

The core assets for this REIT are industrial and retail properties, but we see that the residential platform is seeing some amount of growth. Core assets and the development pipeline are or should be focused in the near term. 

Rate Hikes Have Consequences

The rules are being tightened by the OSFI. Some mortgage products are seeing this tightening to ensure that homeowners do not end up drowning in a debt that continues to place them into deeper debt. If we are to see a supersized rate hike soon, this could completely freeze the housing market and cause a decline in the value of homes on the market. 

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Vancouver and Toronto are some of the hottest markets in the country when it comes to real estate, but they have also been ranked some of the worst places in the country to make a purchase. 

The annual ranking done by Zoocasa Realty and MoneySense, which puts together the report “Where to Buy Real Estate in Canada”, lists 45 regions. Vancouver was marked as one of the most financially challenging housing markets in the country, and both prospective buyers and residents are not surprised. 

The data used in the report shows the average home price for last year at $1,230, 200.  This represents a 19% increase over a period of three years. The rankings looked at a number of factors. These include:

• Neighborhood characteristics
• Neighborhood economics
• Price growth over time
• Home prices
• Value and demand

Other Major Cities Considered Worst to Buy

In Ontario, the regions of Oakville and Milton received low ratings, as well as Mississauga and Burlington. Burlington buyers saw the most growth in three years, with the average home price seeing an increase of 67%. 

On the West Coast, the report showed that Victoria and Fraser Valley were both bad places to make a home purchase. Fraser Valley includes Abbotsford, which is a city in British Columbia. The numbers indicate that buyers are spending around 34% more than they were spending three years ago. These regions were given ratings of 1.5 and 1.7 stars respectively. 

In Calgary, the rating was 1.8 stars, even though there was only a 11% increase in the average price. 

Where Should Buyers Look? 

The report also indicated the top 10 communities to make a home purchase. Among the top ten were Ontario and New Brunswick. 

In New Brunswick, the Greater Moncton area is where buyers can purchase a home at a benchmark price of $302,400. Leading cities in New Brunswick include Fredericton and Saint John. The Ontario cities of Branford and Grey-Bruce Owen Sound areas were among the top 10 as well. This was leading areas in Ontario to include Quite West, North Bay, Huron, Perth, St. Thomas, London and Tillsonburg. 

Among the lowest ratings for cities when sorting the list by value were the cities of;

• Edmonton
• St. John’s 
• Winnipeg
• Regina

Chilliwack, Kamloops and Vancouver Island were in the middle with Halifax. Quebec City and Charlottetown did not make the list, neither were any territories included. 

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Seems each week a new report comes out, giving us hope about the housing market. And the most Desjardins report is in favor of a housing correction on the horizon. Their report covers what the future can look like, as well as how the Vancouver market may change. 

Like many other parts of Canada right now, it has become cheaper to live outside of a city. According to the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA), there is an increase in home prices across the province. The places seeing more of an increase include 

• Powell River 
• Northern British Columbia
• Chilliwack
• Vancouver Island 
• Kamloops

The suggestion by Desjardins is that whatever goes up must come back down. And so they expect to see a correction of the housing market in short order. They caution though that there is no need to panic, as the price drops won’t be enough to be considered a collapse of the housing market. You can read up on their Canadian Residential Real Estate Outlook

When Bank of Canada Hiked Interest Rates

Before the interest rate hikes brought on by the Bank of Canada, there was a rush of people trying to purchase homes. Then when the costs of borrowing rose, many potential homeowners no longer wanted or could afford to purchase. This helped to quell the Canadian housing market somewhat. The rise in borrowing costs may even go up further, predicts Desjardins, as depicted by their graph below. 

Expectations for the Near Future

It is expected that housing prices will fall by about 15% in BC by the end of the year 2023. This estimated fall will still not match how much house prices rose during the pandemic. 

With renewed international immigration, Vancouver is expected to reap some positive results to the housing market. This is because the immigration will limit how hard the market correction hits. Interprovincial migration also plays a small factor, though it appears to affect other provinces more drastically than other provinces.

National average increases saw existing homes rising approximately $530,000 in price towards the end of 2019. At its peak in February 2022, this increase was a bit over $790,000, which is equivalent to a 50% increase in the span of just two years. 

In previous months, we have seen prices falling all across Canada, and they have fallen fast as well. In March, we saw a slide of 2.6%, and in April it was down by 3.8%. Even the prices of existing homes have dropped. In March, those declined by 5.9%, and then in April they went down a whopping 12.6%.  

Trends in Different Provinces

Every province sees a different trend, but those provinces that saw the biggest increases during the pandemic will likely see the largest corrections. There is however no expectation for prices to fall below what they were pre-Covid. 

We are by no means calling two months of data a trend, but we think this is a solid indication that the Canadian housing market is now at an inflection point. 

And of course, purchasing an existing home is not the only way to homeownership. Here at Silverbeam Homes, we can help you build your dream home. If you can’t find what you need in the current housing market, give us a call and let’s work it out.  

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British Columbia saw a healthy economy last year when compared to the other provinces. This was largely due to a hot housing market and a global demand for B.C’s commodities. We do not see that pace being kept up in 2022 though.

The Royal Bank of Canada – RBC forecasts a 4.2% expansion for the West Coast economy. This shows a decrease from 2021’s 5.9%. British Columbia registered its highest rate of economic growth of the four Canadian provinces. Its increase was second to Prince Edward Island.

The report from Carrie Freestone and Robert Hogue notes that British Columbia will fall to the middle of the pack this year along with Quebec at +3.6% and Ontario at +4.1%. The market leaders will now be Manitoba, Alberta and Saskatchewan. Manitoba is seeing an increase of +4.8%, Alberta seeing +5.7% and Saskatchewan seeing +6%.

2021 vs 2022

Rising interest rates will also affect home resale activity moderately. This will lead to a broadening of the cooling to other regions. With affordability rapidly deteriorating across Canada and especially in expensive markets, property values will be increasingly more difficult to sustain.

We believe that home prices have already reached their tipping point in a number of markets. British Columbia being one and Ontario being the other as well. Slower activity will reduce the contributions made to the economy by the housing sector that was brought on during the pandemic.

The average MLS price for British Columbia in April was $1.065 million. That shows a 12.9% from the $943,765 in the same month in 2021. This year, the projection is a decline to 97,240 units. This is a 22% percent decrease from the record highs of 2021. This is the information provided by the BCREA’ forecast which was released on May 31st.

MLS sales are forecasted to fall an additional 12.4% which is a decline of 85,150 units between 2022 and 2023.

RBC’s Report Forecast on British Columbia

The report forecasts the province of British Columbia will have the lowest rate of inflation in Canada after tallying the numbers. The percentage is 5.4% for British Columbia whereas the national average is 5.8%.

As of April of 2022 inflation sat at 6.7% – this is the most recent month for which data was released for the West Coast. It is expected that the inflation will gradually decrease across the nation later in the year. We can thank energy prices for stabilizing and high interest rates for tempering the demand by consumers.

The forecast also predicts the resource sector capital investment including a number of LNG projects which will boost the economy of the province.

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Since the onset of the pandemic, we have seen rising house prices everywhere, but these neighborhoods are the five highest. Properly recently released a new report that shows data on a city wide level. The estimated values of homes in these five East Vancouver neighborhoods increased by more than the average 18%. The largest increases could be seen east of Main Street. 

Why Does It Increase?

The city is becoming more and more desirable as the pandemic restrictions lift and life is getting back to some resemblance of normalcy. People want to experience the day and night activities of the city, and this is driving up demand as well as value. 

Hastings-Sunrise 

The increases seen here show a 36% jump in prices. Information from a 2016 census indicates this area was already seeing high housing costs before the pandemic. The housing stock found in this area includes townhouses, detached homes, as well as low-rise apartment buildings. 

You find a low proportion of renters here, with just 41% of households rented, compared to 53% across the city. 

South Vancouver 

This neighborhood can be found south of 41st Avenue. Here saw increases of 35%. This area as shown in the report does not correspond with an area that the city tracks demographics for, so we couldn’t add information on historical demographic data.  

Killarney 

This neighborhood is also located south of 41st Avenue. The increases here were close behind South Vancouver at 34%. This area was historically family oriented and very ethnically diverse. The stock here includes duplexes and detached homes. The renters rate here is lower than the citywide average. The 2016 census shows that there are more seniors living alone in his area than in the past. 

Renfrew 

This area saw an increase of 32% above previous prices.  This area does not correspond to a city defined neighborhood, so there are no supporting demographics for the area. 

Knight 

This area saw house price increases of 31% and is another area with no city-defined neighborhood. 

We are still just watching the market and don’t know if prices will continue to rise, as they have been doing throughout the pandemic. Many experts are predicting a downturn of the market in the near future, and buyers are hoping for this. 

We have become so used to the record breaking prices, bidding wars, and low time on market these days, nothing comes as a surprise. Now there are increasing interest rates, as well as changing buying and selling behavior. We are all hoping for a more balanced market and hoping this will arrive soon. 

Don’t Be Outbid – Let’s Build You A Home 

It’s true that prices are rising everywhere, in every sector and in every industry, but you don’t have to throw away your dreams of owning a home. Here at SilverBeam Homes, we can help you build the home you need from the ground up. Give us a call and let our team take you through the process of building your home with us. 

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The housing market all across Canada appears to be cooling down. This is according to the Canadian Real Estate Association’s latest statistics. April 2022 saw a 12.6 percent drop in home sales all across the country compared to March 2022. Not only has sales declined, but the average price of homes has also dropped. 

As we see the market change slowly into a buyer’s market, many are excited, and some who were considering listing their homes may even now start reconsidering. We think the best decision for everyone on the scene right now is to consider their personal needs more than the market conditions. 

Trying to time the market is very risky, since nobody knows where the market will be a couple weeks from now. The decision to sell or buy a home is to be approached on a case by case basis, taking into consideration the needs of the seller or buyer. The decision really should be a personal one. 

What This Means for Sellers 

When there is less activity on the market, it is harder for sellers to set their properties apart. They will face more pressure to stage and make homes stand out more so they can sell. And also have to invest in cleaning and maintenance to keep a home up to par while still on the market. 

Potential buyers often decide within the first 30 seconds of entering a home whether it is a contender or not. So sellers have to make a big impression, and an even bigger one when in a buyer’s market. When a potential buyer sees a home in good condition that is well taken care of, their perceived value is higher. 

For sellers in this market, they will have to go back to promoting homes for longer times before selling. This means more posting on social media and having high quality photos to help seal the deal. For buyers, the dream of owning a home is looking a lot more tangible now too. We hope the market stays this way, at least for a while, so people can get back on their feet and find their homes. 

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Experts in the real estate market are calling for more supply to help quell the rising prices of homes. This is happening all across Canada, and interest rates are rising, showing us that the market is cooling off. But even so, we are seeing more and more people with a lost hope of owning a home. There are some that don’t even see changing their rental situation in the near future. 

And this is not just Canadians that are in the low income bracket. Persons making “a good income”, even those who have money saved up for a down-payment are finding it hard to afford homes in their communities. More people are living with parents and hoping to purchase homes, but the dwindling list of available homes is getting worse and worse as the days go by. After all, when you move, you will have more than a mortgage to pay. There will also be other living expenses, and current inflation levels are so high, so is the cost of living. 

Many people have downsized their house wish list to fit owning a home into your budget, and it is still not enough. 

Why is the Market so Hot? 

It’s all due to the lack of supply, says economists, politicians and advocates, but others like us here at SilverBeam Homes believe it is the lack of affordable housing that is preventing people from making the step into homeownership. This is actually pushing people out of the market as they get pre-approved and see what they can really afford. It is sad, because a place to live/sheltered is a basic human right. Sadly, many have been outpriced out of the housing market. 

Affordability and 30% Pre-Tax Income

The CMHC – Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation defines affordable housing as being less than 30% of an individual’s pre-tax income. This doesn’t just refer to home ownership, though, it also refers to market-rate rentals and subsidized housing as well. 

The median pre-tax household income in 2020 was $55,700. This would make an affordable housing option slightly under $1,400 per month. Many people, even in double income households, think it will be well into their 40’s before they can afford a nice home, or even a good enough one. For many, the only way they may be able to afford a home is to move out of the country, or so many people think. But what if we told you you had another option?

Building a Home 

Here at SilverBeam Homes, we can help you make your dream of owning a home a reality. Choose us to build you a more affordable house, and also a custom built house with the features and amenities that will meet your specific needs. If you feel like the current housing market is simply not meeting your needs, we may be able to help you. Housing is essential, and we can help you achieve your goals to own a home. 

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What is called “framing” in residential construction is also known as light frame construction. The technique uses vertical components to create a stable frame for both interior and exterior walls. The length of the floor, as well as between walls or beams, you will find horizontal elements called joists. These joists will provide support to the floors and ceilings. 

The method of choice for most construction projects today is platform framing. This is where each story of a building is framed on top of the one before it. The first floor is used as the platform that supports the construction of the next floor. This is advantageous, because it creates a stable surface for construction crews to work on. 

As builders, this gives us the opportunity to make use of dimensioned lumber, which is unlike those used in older methods. Older methods used pieces of wood that were longer and had more natural cuts. 

Platform Framing 

This is the most common type of framing used in modern residential buildings. One story platforms are framed with 8 or 9 foot stud walls that rest along your subfloor. Each additional story of the building will be framed next, before moving to a higher level. It is used for one and two story houses and is now the standard for building in the contemporary home. Why? 

Three Different Reasons:

1. Shorter pieces of lumber, since longer studs will prove more expensive and will be harder to source.  
2. There are breaks in the studs from one level to the next, which create natural firebreaks. 
3. The next floor is always built on a solid surface, and so this ensures that the work environment is safe and structurally sound. 

Framing is one of the typical things you will find on the blueprint of a home these days. If you are in the market for building your own home. We have all the expertise in framing and all related to constructing homes. Give us a call and let us get you home.  

Framing Components 

Here are the common framing components used in every part of a house. 

The Floor 

• Joists – These framing components run horizontally along the length of the floor. They are the base of the support for the home’s floor and serve as the base that the wall panels will be attached to. They are covered with subflooring, which in most cases is derived from plywood. 
• Truss – This is made of 2 x 4 or 2 x 3 pieces of lumber, which are connected to metal plates. A truss can take one of a number of configurations. Essentially though, the truss creates a stable web that supports the floor while also resisting bouncing. 

• Sheathing – this is another name for the subfloor. This panel is fastened to the floor and carries the loads to the floor joists

Framing can seem complex with all its different elements. But, a frame is one of the most important steps when it comes to building a home. It gives your home a sturdy base and frame, and allows room for you to lay all electric, mechanical and plumbing things in place.         

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Bank of Canada’s First Big Hike in Decades

Just this month, the Bank of Canada had its first 50-basis point hike in interest rates in the past 22 years. The move was expected by many bank watchers and economists who were anticipating the increase. Now, there is a lot of uncertainty as to what is coming next. 

The move is seen as a very aggressive one. There was also the announcement of a quantitative reduction of the number of government bonds held on the bank’s balance sheet. This will come into effect on the 25th of April. There is acknowledgement of the need to move forcefully to combat the increasing prices, as well as the return rates.

Exact Change is Made by the Bank of Canada 

The hike comes in after inflation in February hit 5.75%, as seen in the consumer price index readings. The bank raised the overnight rate to 1% and increased the GDP growth projections to 4.2% for this year. Inflation expectations were bumped to 5.3 per cent, moving from the 4.2 percent average.  

The revisions are not surprising, especially with the estimates that were released in January. The Bank of Canada is still optimistic for more growth in 2023, but not everyone is as optimistic as they are. Some analysts expect to see further tightening into 2023. However, we don’t think the Bank of Canada will attempt to keep up with the U.S Federal Reserve. 

It is thought that it is housing vulnerabilities that would keep the bank’s hands tied so it can’t take the rate much higher. The opposite is true of the U.S Federal Reserve. They are expected to peak at 3.38%. Housing is of course overvalued currently, and so household debt burdens are higher and more rate sensitive for investment accounts. It is these that have the biggest share of the economy. 

What Does this Mean for Residents?

Persons with housing and mortgage debt may be under a bit of pressure in the coming months. Canadians with HELOCs and variable rate mortgages will feel the impact right away. With each rate hike, homeowners will continue to feel the hit. Look out for lender rates increasing in the coming days, and try to budget for even more rate increases through the rest of the year. The Central Bank updated its estimates for neutral interest rates running from 1.75% – 2.75%. 

BMO responded to the bank’s actions by indicating a raise in interest rates forecast by the 25 basis points for the year. It is now expecting 50 point hikes in June and July. 

The Bottom Line 

We do expect rates to go up for the rest of the year, but we are not sure just how much just yet. This will mean a sort of roller coaster experience for would-be homeowners and current homeowners. Therefore, homeowners who have the chance to switch to a fixed rate now should possibly take advantage of that and make the move to switch now. 

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The data for March 2022 is out, and across all property types we are still seeing increases in listing prices. Comparing the March 2022 numbers to March 2021 numbers, there has been a 21% increase in listing prices for all property types. To further break this down, we can go into property type. For detached homes, we are seeing a 24% increase in selling price. For Townhomes, we are seeing a 31% increase in selling prices, and for Condos/Apartments there is a 17% increase. With these prices, we have seen decreases in buying compared to the same period in 2021, so overall the data shows a 24% decrease in home buying. Detached home sales have decreased by 34%, Townhomes sales have decreased by 29%, and Condos/Apartment sales have decreased by 14%. 

March 2022 Benchmark Prices in Metro Vancouver 

March 2022 saw home prices in Vancouver breaking an all time high. Vancouver is now seeing its 12th consecutive month of price records. In March of 2022, the benchmark price for a home in Metro Vancouver was $1,360,500. This reflects a 3.6% increase from February’s benchmark price of $1,313,400. March 2022 is also the 16th consecutive month that the benchmark home price has risen over a month to month basis. The last decrease we saw in the benchmark home price for Vancouver was November of 2020. It then dipped ever so slightly to $1,044,400, coming from $1,045,900. 

Metro Vancouver is still the most expensive housing market in Canada, having held this title for more than 30 years. The Benchmark 

March 2022 Benchmark Price Comparisons 

The benchmark price for Vancouver is also higher than the average home price in Toronto, which is $1,299,894. This has seen a slight drop from previous months. Toronto once had the most expensive housing market title for the month of February in 2022. There are slight price increases compared to the previous months. 

Over the past year, we have seen price increases of 25%, inching to $2,118,600 seen in March 2022. The 3.6% increase over the benchmark price in February represents a monthly increase of $73, 800. In the past year, the benchmark price for detached homes in Vancouver has gone up by $418,400. This gain is more expensive than the average home price in Edmonton, which was at $414,788 in March 2022. 

The prices of townhomes have also surged year over year and month over month. Prices are staying above the 1 million mark after passing that level in December 2021. The condo and apartment prices were lagging behind with a 17% increase, which is an increase none-the-less. 

We saw the highest year over year benchmark price growth from homes in Maple Ridge. Their prices went up to $1,275,300, up by 37% year over year and 5.3% month-over-month. 

In West Vancouver, we saw the highest benchmark home price in Metro Vancouver. The price came in at $2,677,500. West Vancouver also saw the lowest annual growth in home prices, with a year-over-year increase of 7.7%. The number of listings has reduced over last year, with a decrease of 16.6%. In March 2022, the 6,673 listings represented a year-over-year decrease of 19.5%. 

This month’s home sales stand at 4,344, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 24%. With these numbers, Vancouver’s sales-to-active-listings ratio is 56.9%. So this means that the home sales for this month are making up a larger section of active listings. 

Vancouver’s housing market saw one tailwind in the 2021 update. Homebuyers in Toronto, Victoria and Vancouver now can benefit from the 5 or 10% down payment incentive that is paid by the Federal government. Persons with a household income up to $15,000 can benefit from this. 

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