June 2022

Vancouver and Toronto are some of the hottest markets in the country when it comes to real estate, but they have also been ranked some of the worst places in the country to make a purchase. 

The annual ranking done by Zoocasa Realty and MoneySense, which puts together the report “Where to Buy Real Estate in Canada”, lists 45 regions. Vancouver was marked as one of the most financially challenging housing markets in the country, and both prospective buyers and residents are not surprised. 

The data used in the report shows the average home price for last year at $1,230, 200.  This represents a 19% increase over a period of three years. The rankings looked at a number of factors. These include:

• Neighborhood characteristics
• Neighborhood economics
• Price growth over time
• Home prices
• Value and demand

Other Major Cities Considered Worst to Buy

In Ontario, the regions of Oakville and Milton received low ratings, as well as Mississauga and Burlington. Burlington buyers saw the most growth in three years, with the average home price seeing an increase of 67%. 

On the West Coast, the report showed that Victoria and Fraser Valley were both bad places to make a home purchase. Fraser Valley includes Abbotsford, which is a city in British Columbia. The numbers indicate that buyers are spending around 34% more than they were spending three years ago. These regions were given ratings of 1.5 and 1.7 stars respectively. 

In Calgary, the rating was 1.8 stars, even though there was only a 11% increase in the average price. 

Where Should Buyers Look? 

The report also indicated the top 10 communities to make a home purchase. Among the top ten were Ontario and New Brunswick. 

In New Brunswick, the Greater Moncton area is where buyers can purchase a home at a benchmark price of $302,400. Leading cities in New Brunswick include Fredericton and Saint John. The Ontario cities of Branford and Grey-Bruce Owen Sound areas were among the top 10 as well. This was leading areas in Ontario to include Quite West, North Bay, Huron, Perth, St. Thomas, London and Tillsonburg. 

Among the lowest ratings for cities when sorting the list by value were the cities of;

• Edmonton
• St. John’s 
• Winnipeg
• Regina

Chilliwack, Kamloops and Vancouver Island were in the middle with Halifax. Quebec City and Charlottetown did not make the list, neither were any territories included. 

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Seems each week a new report comes out, giving us hope about the housing market. And the most Desjardins report is in favor of a housing correction on the horizon. Their report covers what the future can look like, as well as how the Vancouver market may change. 

Like many other parts of Canada right now, it has become cheaper to live outside of a city. According to the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA), there is an increase in home prices across the province. The places seeing more of an increase include 

• Powell River 
• Northern British Columbia
• Chilliwack
• Vancouver Island 
• Kamloops

The suggestion by Desjardins is that whatever goes up must come back down. And so they expect to see a correction of the housing market in short order. They caution though that there is no need to panic, as the price drops won’t be enough to be considered a collapse of the housing market. You can read up on their Canadian Residential Real Estate Outlook

When Bank of Canada Hiked Interest Rates

Before the interest rate hikes brought on by the Bank of Canada, there was a rush of people trying to purchase homes. Then when the costs of borrowing rose, many potential homeowners no longer wanted or could afford to purchase. This helped to quell the Canadian housing market somewhat. The rise in borrowing costs may even go up further, predicts Desjardins, as depicted by their graph below. 

Expectations for the Near Future

It is expected that housing prices will fall by about 15% in BC by the end of the year 2023. This estimated fall will still not match how much house prices rose during the pandemic. 

With renewed international immigration, Vancouver is expected to reap some positive results to the housing market. This is because the immigration will limit how hard the market correction hits. Interprovincial migration also plays a small factor, though it appears to affect other provinces more drastically than other provinces.

National average increases saw existing homes rising approximately $530,000 in price towards the end of 2019. At its peak in February 2022, this increase was a bit over $790,000, which is equivalent to a 50% increase in the span of just two years. 

In previous months, we have seen prices falling all across Canada, and they have fallen fast as well. In March, we saw a slide of 2.6%, and in April it was down by 3.8%. Even the prices of existing homes have dropped. In March, those declined by 5.9%, and then in April they went down a whopping 12.6%.  

Trends in Different Provinces

Every province sees a different trend, but those provinces that saw the biggest increases during the pandemic will likely see the largest corrections. There is however no expectation for prices to fall below what they were pre-Covid. 

We are by no means calling two months of data a trend, but we think this is a solid indication that the Canadian housing market is now at an inflection point. 

And of course, purchasing an existing home is not the only way to homeownership. Here at Silverbeam Homes, we can help you build your dream home. If you can’t find what you need in the current housing market, give us a call and let’s work it out.  

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British Columbia saw a healthy economy last year when compared to the other provinces. This was largely due to a hot housing market and a global demand for B.C’s commodities. We do not see that pace being kept up in 2022 though.

The Royal Bank of Canada – RBC forecasts a 4.2% expansion for the West Coast economy. This shows a decrease from 2021’s 5.9%. British Columbia registered its highest rate of economic growth of the four Canadian provinces. Its increase was second to Prince Edward Island.

The report from Carrie Freestone and Robert Hogue notes that British Columbia will fall to the middle of the pack this year along with Quebec at +3.6% and Ontario at +4.1%. The market leaders will now be Manitoba, Alberta and Saskatchewan. Manitoba is seeing an increase of +4.8%, Alberta seeing +5.7% and Saskatchewan seeing +6%.

2021 vs 2022

Rising interest rates will also affect home resale activity moderately. This will lead to a broadening of the cooling to other regions. With affordability rapidly deteriorating across Canada and especially in expensive markets, property values will be increasingly more difficult to sustain.

We believe that home prices have already reached their tipping point in a number of markets. British Columbia being one and Ontario being the other as well. Slower activity will reduce the contributions made to the economy by the housing sector that was brought on during the pandemic.

The average MLS price for British Columbia in April was $1.065 million. That shows a 12.9% from the $943,765 in the same month in 2021. This year, the projection is a decline to 97,240 units. This is a 22% percent decrease from the record highs of 2021. This is the information provided by the BCREA’ forecast which was released on May 31st.

MLS sales are forecasted to fall an additional 12.4% which is a decline of 85,150 units between 2022 and 2023.

RBC’s Report Forecast on British Columbia

The report forecasts the province of British Columbia will have the lowest rate of inflation in Canada after tallying the numbers. The percentage is 5.4% for British Columbia whereas the national average is 5.8%.

As of April of 2022 inflation sat at 6.7% – this is the most recent month for which data was released for the West Coast. It is expected that the inflation will gradually decrease across the nation later in the year. We can thank energy prices for stabilizing and high interest rates for tempering the demand by consumers.

The forecast also predicts the resource sector capital investment including a number of LNG projects which will boost the economy of the province.

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Since the onset of the pandemic, we have seen rising house prices everywhere, but these neighborhoods are the five highest. Properly recently released a new report that shows data on a city wide level. The estimated values of homes in these five East Vancouver neighborhoods increased by more than the average 18%. The largest increases could be seen east of Main Street. 

Why Does It Increase?

The city is becoming more and more desirable as the pandemic restrictions lift and life is getting back to some resemblance of normalcy. People want to experience the day and night activities of the city, and this is driving up demand as well as value. 

Hastings-Sunrise 

The increases seen here show a 36% jump in prices. Information from a 2016 census indicates this area was already seeing high housing costs before the pandemic. The housing stock found in this area includes townhouses, detached homes, as well as low-rise apartment buildings. 

You find a low proportion of renters here, with just 41% of households rented, compared to 53% across the city. 

South Vancouver 

This neighborhood can be found south of 41st Avenue. Here saw increases of 35%. This area as shown in the report does not correspond with an area that the city tracks demographics for, so we couldn’t add information on historical demographic data.  

Killarney 

This neighborhood is also located south of 41st Avenue. The increases here were close behind South Vancouver at 34%. This area was historically family oriented and very ethnically diverse. The stock here includes duplexes and detached homes. The renters rate here is lower than the citywide average. The 2016 census shows that there are more seniors living alone in his area than in the past. 

Renfrew 

This area saw an increase of 32% above previous prices.  This area does not correspond to a city defined neighborhood, so there are no supporting demographics for the area. 

Knight 

This area saw house price increases of 31% and is another area with no city-defined neighborhood. 

We are still just watching the market and don’t know if prices will continue to rise, as they have been doing throughout the pandemic. Many experts are predicting a downturn of the market in the near future, and buyers are hoping for this. 

We have become so used to the record breaking prices, bidding wars, and low time on market these days, nothing comes as a surprise. Now there are increasing interest rates, as well as changing buying and selling behavior. We are all hoping for a more balanced market and hoping this will arrive soon. 

Don’t Be Outbid – Let’s Build You A Home 

It’s true that prices are rising everywhere, in every sector and in every industry, but you don’t have to throw away your dreams of owning a home. Here at SilverBeam Homes, we can help you build the home you need from the ground up. Give us a call and let our team take you through the process of building your home with us. 

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