August 2022

The second quarter of 2022 has taken a new shift to the worse, according to a new report. Housing affordability is now at its worst in 41 years. The report in question was published last Tuesday by the National Bank Financial Markets. 

The information from the report shows data for 10 housing markets. Affordability was gauged by calculating a mortgage payment as a percentage of income. This compares the average home’s mortgage payment to the median income.  

Housing prices were rising in the second quarter, while affordability was deteriorating. While this was going on, mortgage interest rates were rising. The median home price across the areas in the report was at $810,985 in 2022’s second quarter. For a home of that type, the typical mortgage payment would be $4,166. This reflects an MPPI rate increase of 63.9%. This is the highest it has ever been since 1981. 

The increase from the previous quarter is 10.4% points, which is coming from 19.1% in the previous year. The average MPPI rate has been 40.7 % since 2000. There are a couple of the urban areas included in the study that have MPPI rates that are higher than 90%. 

What The Numbers Look Like in Different Areas

The MPPI here for non-condo homes was 121.2%. Condos has a MPPI of 51%. The combined MPPI is 96.9%. 

The capital of British Columbia is Victoria, and they showed similar numbers. The MPPI for here is 95.6%, with non-condos having an MPPI of 102.5% for non-condos and 52.9% for condos. 

In Toronto, the MPPI for non condos is 98.2%, whereas for condos it is 53.3%. The combined MPPI for the Greater Toronto is thereby 91%. 

In Hamilton, the statistics are close to the national Canadian average. MPI rates were 50.1% for condos and 71.1% for non-condos. 

Middle of the Pack

Montreal has a non condo MPPI of 50.1% and 33.9% for condos. 

Ottawa-Gatineau saw a 50.9% rate for non condo homes and 28.6% for condos. 

The Most Affordable Places to Buy a Home in Canada 

Quebec City and the Prairies are proving to offer the most affordable housing markets in Canada, according to the report. 

In Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary and Quebec City, the numbers are between 30 and 37 percent for non-condos. For condos, the MPPI’s are around 15 to 29%.  

Recent slowdown in the housing market is good news for those who are looking to purchase a home. This is because housing affordability is forecasted by the bank to improve, with a 10% decline in the price of homes in the coming months. There is also the benchmark that five-year mortgage rate stabilization will help to improve affordability before the end of 2022. 

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Interest rates in July took another huge toll, causing Canada’s housing correction to run far and wide. Housing markets across the country have seen a deepened downturn. This is quickly turning into the sharpest drop in the past 5 decades. 

With prices sliding fast, fear is fast replacing the exuberance many of us felt earlier this year, especially in Vancouver and Toronto. These cities saw outsize price gains and stretched affordability during the pandemic, and as such are at the highest risk. 

The Toronto pullback is already obvious, with the frenzy of last winter already gone. Housing activity is currently at its slowest pace in 13 years, except for April 2020 when we first had to live through lockdowns. 

Inventories that were previously rock-bottom have now risen to a year over year high of 58%. Since March of 2022, the composite MLS Home Price Index for Toronto has fallen by 13% to $1,160,000. 

Buyers Reactions 

It is expected that buyers will be on the defensive in the months to come. This, as they have rising interest rates and poor affordability to deal with. They may be able to get further price concessions, especially for properties in the 905 built, where prices had increased exponentially during the pandemic. In the city of Toronto, condos have continued to remain relatively resilient. 

Vancouver’s housing market has been repeatedly cooled off since this spring, with rising interest rates. This has caused a drop in activity of 40% in the last 4 months. Prices have started to weaken, and the composite MLS HPI has seen a decrease of 4.5% since April. 

The Royal Bank of Canada believes that the city’s correction is still at early beginnings, and that buyers in the region will have to face pressure with rising rates as expected affordability starts to become suffocating. Single-detached homes will feel most of the pain, while condos will remain resilient. 

What is Happening Outside of Vancouver?

Some buyers have seen a great reduction in their buying power, and this has caused many of them to back out of the market, or out of their house search. This downturn may be contained in just some parts of the country, but we cannot ignore it. 

In Calgary, for example, we have seen activity that is still above the pre-pandemic levels, but with property values now starting to ease, buyers may be able to get into the market there. With the higher interest rates, buyers have changed some of their needs or have decided to renege some of their wants. They are looking for more affordable options, like single detached homes and condos, etc. 

Sellers are hesitating too, and so supply is also dwindling. The composite MLS HPI for Calgary has dipped since its peak in May. The same course of action is expected in the near future with the RBC. Tight demand and supply will help to support prices offering positive demographic and economic fundamentals. 

Montreal 

Montreal is seeing activity moderated, with home sales standing at 17% below the pre-pandemic levels. Rising inventories and calmer environments have brought around some amount of balance in the market. 

Single family condos and homes have seen a fall in median prices month over month. Property values are expected to ease in the close future. The market will adjust to higher interest rates. The downturn is expected to intensify and spread further. Buyers are waiting to see what will happen with lending rates.  

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